Evidence

Evidence for a given theory is the observation of an event that is more likely to occur if the theory is true than if it is false. (The event would be evidence against the theory if it is less likely if the theory is true.)

The likelihood ratio term ${\frac {P(B|A)}{P(B|\neg A)}}$ from Bayes' theorem is greater than 1 if the event B is evidence of the theory A, and less than 1 if the event is evidence against the theory.

Blog posts

• What is Evidence?
• How Much Evidence Does It Take?
• Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
• The Lens That Sees Its Flaws
• No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws
• That Alien Message
• Information theory and the symmetry of updating beliefs by Academian

See also

• Rational evidence, Evidence of absence, Extraordinary evidence
• Filtered evidence
• Generalization from fictional evidence
• Conservation of expected evidence